Dodgers vs. Braves NLDS Game 3 | 2020 MLB Expert Analysis

The Atlanta Braves will be the “home” team on Wednesday evening for Game 3 of the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers from the neutral-site Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas. The Braves would take control of the series with a win.

How to Bet Dodgers at Braves MLB Odds & TV Info

  • When: Wednesday, 6:05 PM ET
  • Where: Globe Life Park, Arlington, Texas
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Julio Urias/Kyle Wright
  • TV: Fox Sports 1
  • Stream/gameday audio: Fox Sports Go;
  • Opening MLB Lines: TBA

Why Bet on LA Dodgers? | 2020 MLB Expert Analysis

The Dodgers’ rotation is a bit in shambles for this series. In Game 1, Walker Buehler didn’t go very long, allowing one run on three hits and five walks over five-plus innings in Atlanta’s 5-1 win. Tom Verducci revealed on the broadcast that Buehler is dealing with blisters on not one, but two, of the fingers on his right hand, and it showed in the career-high five free passes. Buehler has had blister problems much of this season.

Three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw was to start Game 2, but he was scratched with back spasms – something that has affected him a few times over the years. Tony Gonsolin, who was a possibility to start Game 3, took Kershaw’s place. It’s possible that Kershaw could be ready for Game 4.

Thus, it should be lefty and former top pitching prospect Julio Urias in Game 3. Urias gave up just an unearned run over five innings to get a win last Thursday in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Padres. The Dodgers started Dustin May, but it turned out to just be an “opener” situation, as he went just an inning. Adam Kolerek allowed two runs in the second while getting two outs, and the Dodgers turned to Urias.

Urías struck out Fernando Tatis Jr. to quell a bases-loaded threat in the second inning, keeping the Dodgers’ pitching strategy from unraveling following May’s one-inning stint. Urías retired the first 10 batters he faced.

“That was just a gutty, gutty outing by Julio,” third baseman Justin Turner said. “It doesn’t surprise us. He’s a bulldog out there. When he’s on the mound, he competes as good as anyone. For him to go out there and shut down, essentially, a really good lineup the way he did … he was outstanding. He doesn’t scare off, man. He doesn’t shy away from the big moment, and you could definitely see that out there.”

The 24-year-old has been used as a multi-inning reliever out of the bullpen this postseason, firing eight innings without allowing an earned run while posting an 11/1 K/BB ratio.

His season changed on Sept. 17 vs. Colorado as Urias toed the rubber in a new way. Gone was the short leg kick, turn and windup. Urías started from the stretch and was more deliberate. Since that point, Urías has had better command and has been dominant — particularly in the postseason. Over the past four games, including playoffs, his opponents’ .323 OPS is lower than any four-game run this season by Trevor Bauer (.333), Shane Bieber (.407), Yu Darvish (.468) or Jacob deGrom (.476).

Over his last four games, opponents are 4-for-31 (.129) against his curveball, 2-for-9 (.222) vs. his changeup and 3-for-28 (.107) against his four-seamer, according to Statcast. His walk rate has been 4.1%. Before that, it was 8.8%.

Why Bet on Atlanta? | 2020 MLB Expert Analysis

The Braves had to make a change to their roster before Game 2 as they removed outfielder Adam Duvall, meaning he can’t play again in the playoffs. Duvall suffered a strained left oblique muscle during a swing in Game 1 on Monday. Infielder Johan Camargo was added to the roster as a utility option for Brian Snitker.

Duvall had 16 home runs this season, tied for third most in the NL, but was just 2-for-20 in the playoffs this year. Duvall went wild in September with 11 homers and put together a strong season with a 116 wRC+ overall. He was replaced Monday by 21-year-old outfield prospect Cristian Pache. Camargo struggled to the tune of a .200/.244/.367 batting line over 127 plate appearances, but he brings some versatility.

Kyle Wright will get the call on the mound in Game 3. Wright threw six scoreless innings as the Braves beat the Marlins 7-0 in Game 3 of the NLDS last Thursday to sweep. Wright pitched his way into a bit of trouble in the early going, but after getting Jazz Chisholm to ground out with the bases loaded to end the third inning, he retired 10 consecutive batters with an array of sharp curveballs and sliders.

The 25-year-old finished with seven strikeouts while becoming just the 12th pitcher in MLB history to make his postseason debut with a start of six-plus scoreless innings in a potential clincher.

During the regular-season, Wright had a career-high eight starts, going 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA (22 ER/38.0 IP). Wright went 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA (5 ER/19.0 IP) in his last three starts, allowing opponents to bat just .164 and walking six. The wins came after Wright went 0-7 to begin his major league career. Prior to his last three outings, the Braves were just 2-14 in the 16 career games in which Wright had pitched.

Expert PredictionDodgers 5, Braves 3

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