Rays vs Mets – 2020 MLB Expert Analysis

Depending on what happens early this week, the Tampa Bay Rays could clinch the AL East title with a win at the New York Mets on Wednesday. The Rays are going to win the division barring an epic collapse. The Mets, meanwhile, need wins and help to reach the playoffs.

How to Bet Rays at Mets MLB Odds & TV Info

  • When: Wednesday, 7:10 PM ET
  • Where: Citi Field
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Tyler Glasnow/Steven Matz
  • TV: MLB Extra Innings
  • Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
  • Opening MLB Lines: TBA

Why Bet on Tampa Bay? | 2020 MLB Expert Analysis

The Rays have only lost once in their last 14 series, going 9-1-4. The Rays went 27-13 (.675) against the AL East, the best intradivision winning pct. in franchise history. Tampa won the season series against all four AL East teams for the second time (2010).

The Rays could be close to getting a few guys back off the injured list. Third baseman Yandy Diaz could soon advance to live batting practice, per Rays manager Kevin Cash. Diaz is progressing slowly from the right hamstring strain that he suffered in late August. The 29-year-old was batting .307 with an .814 OPS through his first 184 plate appearances this summer.

Reliever Jose Alvarado threw a 26-pitch bullpen session on Monday and should to a simulated appearance against live hitters on Thursday. The 25-year-old left-hander has been out since mid-August due to lat and shoulder inflammation.

The Rays rank 6th in the majors in ERA (3.66), 9th in starter ERA (3.86) and 4th in bullpen ERA (3.46), down from 2nd (3.65), 4th (3.64) and 1st (3.66) last season. They are one of four teams in the majors that don’t have a qualifying pitcher (Orioles, Marlins, Pirates).

It’s Tyler Glasnow here. Glasnow struck out 10 batters over five innings while allowing just one run for the win last Friday against the Orioles. The only damage was a solo homer off the bat of Austin Hays in the fourth inning. Glasnow dominated for the most part, yielding four hits and two walks. He induced 13 swinging strikes in his 95 pitches.  His fastest pitch was recorded at 100.9 mph, a 2-2 pitch to DJ Stewart in the first.

“I felt loose and I had no tension, and I feel like that’s where the velo comes from,” Glasnow said. “I don’t think the effort level was any higher. If anything, it was a little bit more relaxed. But I think as the year goes on, the things me and [pitching coach Kyle Snyder] are working on have started to take shape a bit better.”

The 27-year-old has an underwhelming 4.21 ERA on the year, but he’s struck out 83 batters in 51 1/3 innings. Only Shane Bieber has a higher strikeout percentage among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched.

Why Bet on New York? | 2020 MLB Expert Analysis

The Mets have placed outfielder Jake Marisnick on the 10-day injured list with right hamstring tightness. Marisnick has battled hamstring issues all year and is now officially done for the remainder of the 2020 season. He played well when healthy, slashing .333/.353/.606 with two home runs in 16 games.

The team is hoping to get back reliever Dellin Betances at some point this week. Betances hit the injured list at the end of August with right lat tightness, but he threw a simulated game at the team’s alternate site last week. The 32-year-old hasn’t worked out as hoped for the Mets this season, posting a 6.10 ERA and 8/7 K/BB ratio over 10 1/3 innings.

Mets closer Edwin Diaz struggled mightily earlier this season but is rolling entering this series. Diaz is quietly working on a stretch of eight straight scoreless appearances, and has only allowed one earned run in his last 12 games. That includes three straight scoreless appearances against the Philadelphia Phillies from September 15-17 – the first time he pitched in three straight games since April 2019. He is ranked in the top 1% of MLB in strikeout rate (50.0%), xBA (.135), xwOBA (.231), xSLG (.217) and Whiff% (50.5%). Those are the same categories he dominated in from 2016-18 with Seattle.

It’s Steven Matz (0-5) on the bump here. Making his return from the injured list, Matz was rocked for six runs over 2 2/3 innings in a loss to the Braves last Friday. Making his first start since August 15, Matz surrendered eight hits (including two home runs) and three walks before being pulled. Things could have been worse, but he was able to work out of a tough jam in the first inning. Matz has an ugly 9.79 ERA through 26 1/3 innings this season.

“It’s been a frustrating year for me,” Matz said. “I came in to spring training 2.0, I was feeling great. I pitched great early on, and for it to go this way is frustrating.”

Manager Luis Rojas said Matz hasn’t been able to avoid the big innings this season, which have ultimately hurt him the most.

“Out of the five innings that he’ll pitch, they’ve have two innings where they score runs on him, and now this outing from the first inning that’s happening to him, where he’s not able to execute his pitches, leaving a lot of them up where it’s not effective up in the zone,” Rojas said.

Expert Prediction Rays 6, Mets 3

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